Honeywell Aviation Forecast Sees up to 9,200 Deliveries of New Business Jets Valued at $270 Billion Through 2025
November 17, 2015
In its 24th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell forecasts up to 9,200 new business jet deliveries worth $270 billion from 2015 to 2025, with a 3 to 5 percent reduction over the value noted in the 2014 forecast.
“While emerging markets like Brazil continue to be a bright spot for business aviation over the medium term, we have seen weaker demand across other key growth markets, which may affect near-term order and delivery levels,” said Brian Sill, president, Business and General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace. “And while the sluggish economic growth and political tensions are driving a more reserved approach to purchasing, we are seeing operators invest in retrofits and upgrades for their existing aircraft, especially around connectivity, boosting aftermarket opportunities.”
- Deliveries of approximately 675 to 725 new jets in 2015, a single-digit percentage growth year over year. The improvement in deliveries expected in 2015 is largely due to new model introductions and an increase in fractional-usage type of aircraft deliveries.
- 2016 deliveries are projected to be slightly lower reflecting weaker emerging market demand partially offset by deliveries to fractional operators.
- Operators surveyed plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 22 percent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet.
- Of the total new business jet purchase plans, 19 percent are intended to occur by the end of 2016, while 17 and 20 percent are scheduled for 2017 and 2018, respectively.
- Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, ranging from super mid-size through ultra long-range and business liner, which are expected to account for more than 80 percent of all expenditures on new business jets in the near term.
- The longer-range forecast through 2025 projects a 3 percent average annual growth rate despite the relatively flat near-term outlook as new models and improved economic performance contribute to industry growth.